Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Where will India be if the Dow breaks 7500?

The Dow Jones has hit its lowest level since November as stocks started the week off on a sour note. It finished the session down 298 points, Nasdaq lost 64 and the S&P 500 shed 38 points. India did not exactly lose as much in today's trade, probably because of short covering, which in turn was the fallout of relentless selling for the past two days following diappointment in the Interim Budget. The 30-share BSE Sensex closed at 9,015 points, down 19.82 points after swinging 191.61 points during the day. The 50-share NSE Nifty swung nearly 70 points before closing at 2776, up 5.65 points. Experts, however, feel India cannot escape the wrath of US meltdown for long because the gap between the events in the US economy and the rest of the world is narrowing. Some experts have predicted Dow can break the crucial support level of 7500 and can go as low as 6000, paving the way for India's devastation. Infact, Shankar Sharma of First Global feels the Indian markets may hit new lows of 7,200 by February or March. The main cause behind US crash: There has been a record contraction in New York manufacturing, which spurred concern that the government's stimulus package won't be enough to curb the deepening recession. The road ahead: For the Dow Dow Jones is on the verge of breaking 7500, which would lead to 6700 quickly and eventually down to 6200. 7449 is the key support level on the Dow with a target of 6000 points on the downside. As for the S&P 500if it breaks 740, it may go down to 540. That the Dow will touch 6000 seems to be the general consensus among experts.

Gold Run

Gold is trading at a seven-month high above USD 950 per ounce. The yellow metal has hit record high above Rs 15,000 per 10 gram in India. It is trading near record highs in currencies such as euro, pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss frank. In India, gold touched a high of Rs 11,500 per 10 gram on February 17, 2008 vs Rs 15,000 per 10 gram today. There are speculations that it may go up to a high of USD 965 per ounce and then, USD 1,165 per ounce. Gold has gained 30% over the last one-year. Gold prices are moving up due to a lot of newsflows on the currency front. Yen is at a five-week low compared to the dollar. Pound has also declined and is at a 2-week low, ahead of UK inflation data today. Asian currencies have also declined, Korean won is trading at 2-month lows. There are also speculations that exports and regional economies will contract further. Political scenario in Japan is further aiding the rise. Finance Minister of Japan has said that he will resign after budget bills are passed in Parliament. Other factors like an unstable global economic scenario, low interest rates, weak equity markets and depreciating rupee are also pushing the prices much higher. Factors - Unstable global economic scenario - Low interest rates - Weak equity markets - Central bank buying - Depreciating Rupee